This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I think that it’s a good week to concentrate more on money games. The main GPP is the $8 entry that pays $10K to 1st place. That is the best you to chase in my view. I will have a couple LUs that I put into a great deal of GPPs hoping I will win all of them, but I will not have many LUs in complete this week. Aside from that, almost all of my play this week will probably be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. That said, here are a few plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of this week.
Money Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I think Song Yadong could be the best play on the card that weekend and there are 4 fighters priced greater than him. Yadong is a -500 favorite on Saturday and I think that is a fight the UFC is wanting him to triumph in his home nation. I believe in tournaments, Yadong will be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced above him, with much smaller odds of winning ITD. I believe that you can make a situation to fade him because of his ownership in GPPs, but in money games we do not care about ownership. I believe this is a great spot to lock at a win and maybe ~100-points, then try to find 3 more wins that we are able to afford. More frequently than not 4 wins gets the job done in money games.
GPP play of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This fight has got the 2nd highest FDGTD lineup on the card in -400. There’s also value on Hu Yaozong together with him $600 cheaper and the betting line being nearly even. Usually when there is value like that within an underdog it makes them one of the very popular fighters on the card. I really don’t think both of these guys are UFC level fighters, but I am a bit more impressed by what I have observed from Coulter than this inexperienced Yaozong. I believe getting Coulter in GPP lineups at a lower possession than Yaozong makes sense this weekend at a struggle that should not move all 3-rounds. If both of those men get an early end they will likely be about the winning lineup. I’m guessing Coulter will be the lower owned man of both and that’s what makes him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of this week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I like to target this week to get UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved creating lineups this week because I hate plugging in two underdogs once I think almost every favorite will get a win. I think the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou since he has a clear path to success and he’s won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the power to be able to KO anybody on the planet. If he can find a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends upon the 1st spot lineup, especially if it is an early KO. From the first fight between these two men Blaydes was able to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up pretty fast each time. If he is able to end up like that here, I really don’t see any way Blaydes are going to have the cardio to try to wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is the scarier guy on the toes and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for extended amounts of time. I believe Ngannou is reside for an upset here but on a card, I don’t like many underdogs I think he is the best one to aim with his 1st round KO upsidedown. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t like targeting at least one of these women in the $9k selection. I think they need to all get wins, but I don’t find any of them getting 10x their wages. For Mueller, she’d want at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and that I believe she has to get a finish to make that occur. Mueller has 5 wins on her MMA record and just 1 of the wins did not go to conclusion. She only scored 72 DK points in her 1 UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she will not be winning anyone a tournament. In addition, I think Zhang and Xiaonan have greater chances of winning compared to Mueller does this that’s the reason why I picked her over those two as my fade of this week. I will not be making a great deal of lineups this week but if I was making 20 lineups afterward Mueller will be on zero of these.
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